I understand that I'm new to this forum, and that nobody really knows me at this point. I don't want to over-step my boundaries here, but I've seen threads on this subject for years in various places, and I always feel compelled to say what absolutely must be said under these circumstances.

First of all, no matter WHY it hits the fan, "we" will be instantly put into a defensive position versus "them". Now "they" can be any group your imagination can conjure, but the tactical situation will generally be the same: "You" will be facing superior numbers, superior command & control, superior logistics, superior technology, superior firepower capability. (The only exception to this would be in the case of gangs, which would, for the most part, be comprised of untrained, undisciplined personnel. These groups will likely be repelled rather easily, except in the case of Mara Salvatrucha/MS-13, many of which have military, mercenary, or para-military training and/or experience. ).

So, what doctrine is best applied to the scenario of a smaller force defending itself against a larger force? The doctrine of Guerilla Warfare (GW) is the only one which can be considered. And one of the primary governing rules of GW is the "hit and run" principle. In order for this to be effective, mobility must be enhanced to the greatest extent possible.

Thus: We NEVER defend a fixed position. (Ruby Ridge and Waco should serve as excellent examples of what WILL happen if you do.).

Again, I apologize if I've over-stepped any boundaries as a new member here. I would be remiss in my duties if I didn't speak up, and good people made bad decisions because of lack of information.

You know in your heart that Bugging In will get you burned out. It's simply what will happen. So, wouldn't it be better to focus your time, money and resources into: Learning to shoot, move and communicate, selecting and modifying a Bug Out Vehicle, networking with others for bulk purchaes, caching needed supplies and equipment, selecting Bug Out Routes (at least 3 to/from each Rally Point), learning what "they" will likely do so that you can deal with it more efficiently, learning convoy operations (especially if multiple vehicles will be involved in your Bug Out), learning radio communications...the list goes on.

While this IS my opinion on the situation, it is also the shared opinion of highly succesful GW leaders (politics aside), such as Che Guevara, Tito, Garibaldi, Judah and the Macabees, Sun Tzu, and others throughout history. Because it works.

I'll stop here, for now, and I'll thank you, in advance, for giving this concept your careful consideration. It will give you the best, fighting chance to survive the coming collapse.

Sincerely,

John Stillwater.

+1 for the shoot and scoot school of thought.

Welcome aboard!

You're not overstepping your boundaries at all. In fact, this is the sort of thought-out and well-reasoned post we like.

You bring up some good points. If you're in a city or the suburbs, near civilization at all, you're right - it's going to be immediate defense. The thing is (and I may just be assuming here, and we all know how well that works out) is that most people who are planning to bug in aren't talking about doing so in the middle of Manhattan. That's just really drawn-out suicide. I don't think you're really suggesting that these people who live off the grid and 20 miles from the middle of nowhere are best to bug out, are you?

As for the bugging out itself, you're absolutely right. It's survival and guerilla warfare all the way. But ultimately, when you bug out, you have to have some place to bug out to. You can't live the rest of your life on the run, living off the land or whatever you can scavenge. Well, you can, but it ain't very fun, and I certainly couldn't do it with my family. I personally just can't buy the concept of "Bugging in won't work." In the city, sure - there's no way you could. In the country, however, 10 miles from the nearest neighbor, not so much. Of course, it's good to have an escape plan in case it does get that bad (backups and contingencies are the name of the game for survivalists) but I wouldn't think such people should just up and GTFOOD.

if SHTF is a fight, you're absolutely right...GW is the only realistic answer. the thing is, SHTF can take many forms. if it were a nuclear attack on this nation (i'm speaking of a strategic attack here) then bugging in is far safer than running around in the fallout. if SHTF turns out to be H5N1 then bugging in or bugging out will depend greatly on your situation. if the event that causes TS to HTF is an economic collapse then your best course is to be as independant as possible and that will be a whole lot easier if you prepare a place now.

my point is we need to be ready for ALL possibilities. have a bug out location as well as supplies to allow you to bug in. at the same time, learn guerilla tactics and be prepared to 'shoot 'n scoot' if it becomes necessary. but to assume that SHTF HAS to be a fight against a superior (or inferior) force is short sighted, in my opinion.

i think the bug in/bug out decision is likely to be made for you. well me anyway.

some people on the forum are lucky enough to live in remote areas of the country or have dozens (or hundreds) of acres at their disposal. i think these people are obviously planning to bug in regardless of what happens and i'd say their chances are great.

not me. i live in an urban area that is about a 1 hour drive from three major US cities. add another hour of driving and you can add 2 more major cities. if there is a strategic nuke strike on these targets, I am practically forced to bug in initially until fallout settles. After that, I have to consider that if I bug out, I'm going to be racing against millions of other refugees. roadways will likely be useless and it wouldnt be practical to think I could walk to an area where life is still going on normally. in this situation, i'm bugging in and riding it out to the very likely bitter end. I understand one well placed molotoff cocktail will take out all my fortifications but I'd have to take my chances, possibly retreating and taking over another secure location if possible. if i can team up with like minded (and like armed) friends i have, my odds increase quite a bit.

on the other hand, if SHTF is localized or regionalized flooding/wildfires/earthquake bugging out is nearly my only choice and it would be very reasonable to think I could get to an area not being affected and ride it out there. if thats an alpha site I bought years ago or a motel 6 in the next state over, thats going to depend on your prior preparations.

prior prepartions is the last thing that I think will make the decision for alot of people in similar situations to me. not that we didn't want to prepare, but lets face it, preparing isnt free. a well equipped bug out vehicle with supplies and a well equipped basement/buried shipping box/bomb shelter or what-have-you....well we're talking about several thousand dollars. frankly if you decided to equip your home first and a BOV second, and the SHTF before you ever got around to your BOV, you're not going to want to abandon that generator/water tank/ammo stockpile/etc that you so carefully built up for years.

its going to come down to keeping your wits about you, analyzing the situation, analyzing your options and resources, and making the best of a bad situation. prior preparations aren't a guaranteed thing unless you walk around with 90 mres and an ar-15 strapped to your back 24/7 and i've never met a person that looks like that.

frankly if you decided to equip your home first and a BOV second, and the SHTF before you ever got around to your BOV, you're not going to want to abandon that generator/water tank/ammo stockpile/etc that you so carefully built up for years

This is why you need to prioritize your prepping. You're right, you don't want to abandon the generator/food/ammo/water. On the other hand, it's not a great idea to start stocking up on the generator/food/ammo in a place that you think is going to have to be abandoned relatively quickly. If you're in a position like that I would spend the money and time trying to develop contacts/places that you could store supplies away from cities. Obviously land would be best, but that is out of the range of many of us. So I would look for friends or storage units or similar outside of town. There are pros and cons to each, of course. Anything is better than nothing. Make your preps around what you think is most likely. If you think you're screwed in the city, make your preps around bugging out, and set up caches and supplies in a more fortuitous situation.

The decision to bug in or hit the bricks is going to be determined by what befalls us.
Natural disaster vs economic collapse vs armageddon vs UN
They are all going to require different reactions from each of us.

Those of us with alternate AOs also need to remember that your preferred bug out site might be in as bad or even worse shape then where you are. If thats the case don't be surprised to find that your people there will need to come to you.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket. You might need to head in a entirely new direction. Consider your options ahead of time.

When I bought my place, I bought it to be a refuge. I am in a very rural area in northern MI. Less than 10,000 people in the whole county. I am working though with others within 30 or so miles to stock up here (mostly). We plan for the others to bug out to my location. We have just recently started making these plans. Many chickens, rabbits, lots of wild game in the area, well for water, pole barn to be finished this spring. 10 acres of land (surrounded by many acres that nobody ever visits). Work only a few miles away. What would be your advice for the next step. We were going to start working on fortifications (more fencing, fox holes, etc.) next, but I would like to know what you think. Thanks

I also enjoyed these two stories. One is The bug out, and the other is Lights Out. http://www.giltweasel.com/stuff/LightsOut-Current.pdf
http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=172494

Being new to this type of stuff, I really learned alot from these stories.

Growing up in a rural setting though does have its advantages.