As a new member, I have been wracking my brain to find something of interest to share with everyone that is not simply a reiteration of the obvious topics that are covered on survivalist sites. By the time you find your way to a website like this, usually you have done a bit of reading, studied and most often begun preparations (they are never finished) and the information like what to buy, how much to buy, how to store it etc are usually topics that have been very well covered in the past.

My own educational background is in psychology, never did get that advanced degree though, too much patsy BS ideology that needed to be accepted as absolute dogma(ever notice that often the families of psychologists are more dysfunctional than yours? There’s a reason for that.). I did however continue to study human behavior and the workings of the mind on my own for years after college, I guess you could call it a hobby.

When TSHTF, we all wonder if we made the right predictions; the questions are endless and tend to keep us up some nights. We have all gone through the different scenarios; Nuclear war, EMP, Peak Oil, Economic collapse, Plague…the list seems endless. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best has become a cliché anymore, and it begs another question. What is the worst? The answer is whatever event you are least prepared to deal with. (I know it is one big circle). There are some scenarios that are rather predictable like the distance of a kill zone for a 20 mega-ton warhead or the ability of a killer disease to spread around the globe, but in most scenarios there is one consistent inconsistency that cannot be adequately predicted; people, both acting individually or en masse.
Will the hordes move along the interstate or choose to take back roads? How long will they wait before leaving an area? At what point does violence break out? All of these are important questions to answer when planning for the safety of you and yours. The answer is not simple and no sure bets can be booked. There are however certain ways to hedge your bets.

It is estimated that only 2% of the American population has enough food to last 6 months or longer, that is to say that about 6 million people are of a preparation mindset. So right off the bat you can see that you as a survivalist are vastly outnumbered by roughly 50 to 1. In the biggest cities, that ratio jumps to about 5,000 to 1, in the countryside it falls to about 5 to 1. This is in part due to population, but largely due to a difference in culture. If there is a snowstorm and you live in the country it may be weeks before you get your power back on line, it could take an hour for the cops to show up if you have an intruder, no one will hear you scream and a trip to fetch groceries can be akin to a short family vacation. City dwellers on the other hand can walk to the police station or grocery store and they are generally the first to get their power restored after a mass outage. Convenience is the norm and the need to be self-sufficient is far less obvious an issue in the city. A small well armed, trained and organized group may be able to handle fifty attackers, only an army could handle 5,000. This is why so many experts in the field absolutely suggest getting out of the cities as quickly as you can.

After any traumatic event, people will experience what is called “psychological shock”. The exceptions to this will include people who have had extemporaneous training either formal, as in the military and first responders or informal, such as, believe it or not, being a survivalist or a criminal. That being said, no one (except the psychotic) is completely immune, trained or not. However these groups all have experienced psychological reprogramming that makes them think differently than your common American.

The necessity for formal training in certain occupations is obvious. The informal training of the other groups happens in many ways by accident. As an example I give an experience that most of us who prepare have encountered, the friend, neighbor or relative that we love deeply but who just refuses to acknowledge the fragility of our society. “It can’t happen here” is their motto and “I’ll just come over to your house if it does” is their plan. They buy you a roll of tin foil as a gag gift for Christmas…basically they think you are nuts. You on the other hand toss and turn at night knowing that not only can it happen here, but that it eventually will and you are not nearly as prepared as you would like.

You have played out on paper and in your own mind the unthinkable that some day in defense of your own, you may have to take a life, you may have to eat bugs or shlep across hundreds of miles on foot to get to safety. You realize that grocery stores will be emptied in a matter of hours, gas unavailable or rationed and our fiat money rendered useless. This is in effect training against “shock” since you have already accepted this as a possibility.
The difference between a survivalist and a criminal however is vast. While both groups have, in a sense, trained their minds to accept the unacceptable, the criminal has done nothing to prepare for it. Much like your unbelieving friends who are looking to you as their source of survival WTSHTF, the criminal will be looking to take from others to support them. This is not a departure from their pattern today within an intact system, in a SHTF scenario they will initially have a field day.

There is psychological shock that many of us have experienced on some level in our lives; the sudden death of a relative or friend or the attacks of 9-11 for example. We have seen others experience its effects as well; the person who stands frozen in place as people run past them yelling “run!”. The Veteran who just cannot get the image of a child caught in crossfire out of their mind 40 years later. Each person deals with it in their own time and their own way, it is much like the 5 stages of grief: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. In all of the first 4 stages the person’s mind is not acting normally. In the first 3 they can in fact be irrational. Any person can become stuck in any stage along the way for a matter of seconds to years, it will depend on the individual.

After the SHTF about 80% of the population will remain in denial for at least 6-12 hours. This will be exhibited by staying at home “hunkering down” so to speak, glued to the television, waiting for that scrap of information that will prove it was all a big mistake, waiting for someone to tell them it really isn’t as bad as it seems.
Their brains will be highly open to suggestion. If you want to make a difference no matter how small, you call your unprepared friends and family when they are in this stage and urge them to get food, water and weapons now, and you may stand a chance of getting them at least a little better prepared. Otherwise, the masses will wait until a talking head reports from a closed gasoline station, empty grocery store or looted burning Wally Mart before they choose to act. That is when reality will hit. This period will be a good time to put your plans into action. Get out of dodge asap; Board up windows and doors, lock gates or get the generator hooked up, do anything last minute that you need to as the next stage will be rough.

6 hours + They will feel angry that this has happened, that no one warned them, that the bunglers in the government screwed it up so badly. The 80% will be walking around the store like an emotional bomb waiting to go off. They will have one thing in mind, they are going to get what is theirs. Their family is going to beat the odds. With logic stored in their back pocket, emotion will be at the forefront and anyone who interferes with their goal will be the enemy, it won’t matter if it is the cop trying to re-route traffic or the lady who just grabbed the last case of bottled water (think about the mob crushing we see each year at department stores, it is a similar psychology). Random acts of violence are very possible, stay away from crowds!

24 hours + Anger will intensify and broaden its scope. Violence which may have been confined to the areas where anger tends to rear its ugly head in normal times, will be seen everywhere as people run out of food, gasoline, diapers, baby formula and experience power outages. If the government hasn’t already done so, strict new rules and curfews will come into effect, exacerbating the situation where a populous who is used to readily available goods, freedom of movement and the right to assemble is being further “inconvenienced”. Some may never come out of this stage or vacillate readily between two or more stages.

2-14 days- They realize that this is not a dream, they have directed their anger everywhere, now they try a different approach. Bargaining takes many forms. That neighbor who laughed at your preparations, may hand you wads of worthless cash if you will just take his family in. That family member you tried to warn may offer you grandma’s diamond bracelet or his BMW if only you will give him a bag of rice. Church attendance will spike up as those who have strayed away find a purpose for God again (the real question is will He find a purpose for them?). If things are truly bleak some people may opt (as was seen in WWII) to “sell” their children into prostitution or slavery (if you ever want to see a real tear jerker watch Sophie’s Choice) for food or gasoline that the rest of the family might live another day. This will be a difficult time for those of us who have prepared. Dealing with people in this stage will rip your heart out.

2 weeks + Depression is an evil condition. In its lesser forms, emotion is deadened. People who are depressed avoid social situations, may turn to drugs and alcohol to escape reality and may intentionally push people they love away. Flashes of anger, even rage are possible. In its severe form life becomes meaningless, food becomes tasteless, health and hygiene forgotten and if suicide is not selected, existence becomes robotic. Combined with hunger, illness, fatigue they will appear almost as zombies, empty shells with hollow eyes. Death will not matter to them, they have lost the will to live, making the easy targets for the criminal minds either as victims or as new recruits. Even if things are improving, the depressed can only see what has been lost, they may obsess about an object or even a person who they believe is their only chance at future happiness.

Acceptance will come about when the new reality is seen as inevitable and rather than wallow in what once was, the person once again seeks opportunity for bettering life as it now exists. For some this will mean bettering their lives through the use of violence for others it will mean finding a certain rhythm to life and positive partnership with others.

The exact timing above is questionable, it is based upon what has been seen in smaller disasters such as Katrina and large disasters overseas (although many of these people are far more used to hardship than the average Westerner).
What is clear however is that in survival it is as important to prepare your mind as it is your larder. Even if you cannot purchase everything you need to be ready for every eventuality, it is knowledge that will prove the most valuable possession and give you the survival edge.

Good Read. I'm in central TX also, SW of Austin.